LOS ANGELES —
Approximately 1,742 primaries this year are being challenged, making it 16% of the total. This percentage is equal to the lowest since Ballotpedia started collecting data in 2010, which was in 2014. Do all states experience these record lows, though? That will be elaborated upon later.
Partisan trend analysis reveals that there are 610 contested primaries, with Democrats having the fewest.
One way that Ballotpedia measures the level of competition in an election cycle is by looking at the number and percentage of contested primaries. If there are more candidates in the primary, then voters have more options when it comes time to choose an official. Fewer candidates and options on the ballot are indicative of a reduced number of contested primaries.
Compared to 2020, when 1,827 primaries were held, there are now 1,742, a decrease of 5%. Twelve percent of all conceivable Democratic primaries are being held this year, with 610 contests, a decline of 27 percent from 2020 when all 44 states had votes.
An increase of 15% from 2020 brings the total number of contested Republican primaries to 1,010. This represents 20% of all anticipated Republican primaries. With 122 contests or 41% of the total top-two or top-four primaries, there has been a 12% rise from 2020.
The percentage of disputed primaries is highest in three states: California (62%), Nebraska (60%), and Washington (35%). With all three of these systems, voters get to choose between two candidates in a top-two primary. It doesn’t matter what party someone is on; the top two finishers go on to the runoff.
As candidates from all parties, rather than just one, vying for a fixed number of seats in top-two primaries, the amount and proportion of fought primaries, and thus the level of competition, tend to rise. Applying this analysis to the state of California reveals the same thing. With the passage of Proposition 14 in 2010, the top-two primary system was established in California.
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The number of contested state legislative primaries in California dropped to 26% in 2010 before the top-two system was put into place.
There has been a disputed primary rate of at least 49% in California since 2012, the first year that the legislature held elections under the top-two primary system. There was a 131% increase from 2010 to 2012 in the number of contested primaries in the state, reaching 60%.