Since the United States gave Ukraine permission to utilize American ATACMS to strike targets deep within Vladimir Putin’s territory, Russia has escalated its aggressive rhetoric toward Ukraine’s Western partners and escalated its nuclear attack threats.
But according to U.S. intelligence, a real Russian nuclear strike is “unlikely,” as Knewz.com has learned.
In reaction to Ukraine’s initial attacks on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied missiles, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a doctrine more than a week earlier that lowered the bar for a nuclear response to any attack on his land.
The head of the Russian State Social University’s Department of International Law, Professor Yuri Zhdanov, said in a statement that the West has opened Pandora’s box in Russia by making decisions that are detrimental to the country during the conflict in Ukraine.
According to a comment from Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, “What is the most striking example of the realities of the contemporary day? A decision is made by the White House authorities in the United States to employ American-made weaponry against the Russian Federation.
Peskov continued, “We needed that update, we ensured this,” alluding to Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine.
According to reports, the revised nuclear doctrine, titled Foundations of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence, asserts:
“Using nuclear weapons (NW) is a drastic step to preserve national sovereignty. At the same time, Russia wanted to make clear the conditions under which NW may be used because of the rise of new military risks and threats.
The Russian state news agency TASS published the following about the new philosophy, which was revised from the June 2020 version:
The modified policy specifically broadens the list of military threats that nuclear deterrence is intended to address, as well as the nations and military alliances that are subject to it. The text further declares that Russia will now consider any assault by a nuclear-backed non-nuclear nation to be a joint attack.
“Moscow also reserves the right to consider a nuclear response to a conventional weapons attack threatening its sovereignty, a large-scale launch of enemy aircraft, missiles, and drones targeting Russian territory, their crossing of the Russian border, and an attack on its allyBelarus,” the news agency added.
However, U.S. intelligence sources recently told Reuters that “intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons.”
According to an anonymous congressional staffer with knowledge of the situation, “The assessments were consistent: TheATACMSweren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus,” the publication was informed.
It has been noted that U.S. officials were initially concerned about Putin’s reaction and cautioned against President Joe Biden’s suggestion to relax restrictions on U.S.-supplied weaponry to Ukraine.
However, in reaction to North Korean troops joining the Russian war effort, President Biden ultimately gave Ukraine the clearance.
Although Putin might not immediately try to escalate with its nuclear forces, the U.S. officials who talked to Reuters about potential Russian escalations stated that he would “try to match what it views as U.S. escalation.”
For example, analysts believe that Russia’s recent launch of a new ballistic missile is intended to pose a danger to Ukraine’s European allies and the United States.
Furthermore, according to U.S. intelligence, Russia is probably going to launch a number of sabotage attacks around Europe. An October study claims that since the start of 2024, sabotage actions carried out under Russian orders have “skyrocketed” and are thought to be Putin’s retaliation for Europe’s ongoing backing for Ukraine.
The article further stated that in exchange for payments of up to $10,000 in cryptocurrency, Russia has been “recruiting” people throughout Europe to conduct these assaults in their own nations.
According to reports, these Russian “recruiters” have given orders for a variety of actions, including “spying on military bases, setting fire to vehicles, and even murder,” in addition to sabotage.
Russia’s “covert retaliation” against Europe has been deemed a serious issue by experts, who also noted that the possibility of a nuclear escalation remains very much alive, despite the concerns being “overblown.”
Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian, and East European studies at Georgetown University, made the following statement in reference to Russia’s growing sabotage attacks throughout Europe:
“The mixed response from Russia is concerning… There was always a potential of escalation. Now, there is more cause for alarm.
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